China's Post-United States Withdrawal Strategy in Afghanistan: CPEC Expansion, Balancing Interests and Challenges

Abstract

The return of the Taliban to power in August 2021, following the abrupt withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, marked a critical shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape. While many global actors distanced themselves from the new regime, China adopted a pragmatic and interest- driven approach. This paper examines China’s evolving strategy toward Taliban-led Afghanistan, emphasizing how China balances its regional ambitions with calculated restraint. Rather than offering formal recognition, China has engaged through economic diplomacy i.e. expanding trade, maintaining a diplomatic presence, and integrating Afghanistan into its Belt and Road Initiative framework. A major turning point came in 2023 with the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghan territory, signalling China’s intent to solidify its regional influence through infrastructure and connectivity. Grounded in the realist theory of international relations, this study analyses trade data from 2021 to 2024 to assess how China has pursued its interests under Taliban rule. The findings show a sharp increase in China’s exports and total trade volume, indicating a strategy that leverages economic tools while avoiding political entanglement. At the same time, China’s caution particularly in security cooperation and formal recognition-reveals the limits of engagement with a regime lacking international legitimacy. Ultimately, the paper argues that China’s approach is defined by selective engagement: expanding influence without overcommitting in an unpredictable environment.