Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Border Skirmishes (2022) and Waning Russian Influence in Central Asia

Authors

  • Adam Saud Professor of International Relations, Bahria University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
  • Anjum Gul Lecturer of International Relations, Muslim Youth University, Islamabad, Pakistan. Ph.D. International Relations Scholar, Bahria University, Islamabad, Pakistan.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54418/ca-92.198

Keywords:

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Central Asia, Border Conflict, Conflict Resolution, Mediation.

Abstract

Since their independence, Central Asian republics witnessed most serious interstate military escalation between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in 2022 which left several dead and hundreds injured. There is around 600 KMs of disputed border between the two states which is the major bone of contention. This war also led to a substantial damage to civilian properties. This study analyses the reasons, intensity and outcomes of the war. It particularly evaluates the Russian role in conflict resolution and impacts of this war on the regional security. Findings show that Russian involvement in Ukraine war has negatively impacted its ability to keep influence in the Central Asian region. Russian led CSTO also offered diplomatic solution by connecting both parties through telephonic conversation. Research recommends a regional mechanism to resolve the border conflicts not only between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan but in the whole region.

 

References

Allouche, J. "The governance of Central Asian waters: national interests versus regional cooperation." In Disarmament Forum, 4(1), 2007

Conflict in the Kyrgyz-Tajik border- a potential turning point.” CASIAN Analyst, May 2022. Available at: https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13672-conflict-in-the-kyrgyz-tajik-border-%E2%80%93-a-potential-turning-point-for-central-asia.html (accessed on April 22, 2023).

Dagiev, D. Regime Transition in Central Asia: Stateness, Nationalism and Political Change In Tajikistan And Uzbekistan. Routledge, 2013

Emptseva, J. “Small conflicts with big impact: The Tajik-Kyrgyz warno one talks about.”European Journal of International Law, October 11, 2022. Available at: https://www.ejiltalk.org/small-conflicts-with-big-impact-the-tajik-kyrgyz-war-no-one-talks-about/ (accessed November 15, 2022).

Eruygur, B. “Central Asia-Russia Summit in Astana discusses regional cooperation.” Anadolu Agency, October 14, 2022. Available at: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/central-asia-russia-summit-in-astana-discuss-regional-cooperation/2712066 (accessed November 10, 2022)

Jailobaeva, K. “NGOs in Kyrgyzstan,” (ETH Zurick). Available at: https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/145092/kanykei2_eng.pdf (accessed November 23, 2023).

Kurmanalieva, G.“Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: Endless Border Conflicts.” The EU, Central Asia and the Caucasus in the International System no. 6, February, 2019. Available at: https://www.cife.eu/Ressources/FCK/EUCACIS_Online%20Paper%20No%204%20-%20Kurmanalieva.pdf (accessed February 10, 2023).

Kyrgyz Tajik officials reach agreement on troop pullback truce after deadly border clashes.”Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty. May 2, 2021. Available at: https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyz-tajik-border-troop-pullback-deadly-clashes-ceasefire/31232855.html (accessed February 10, 2023)

Kyrgyzstan says ceasefire agreed with Tajikistan after clashes.”Al Jazeera. April 29, 2021. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/29/kyrgyzstan-says-agreed-ceasefire-with-tajikistan-after-clashes (accessed January 19, 2023)

Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan Exchange Sustain Fire in Remote Border Location,” Eurasianet. September 14, 2022. Available at: https://eurasianet.org/kyrgyzstan-tajikistan-exchange-sustained-fire-in-remote-border-location (accessed November 15, 2022).

Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border clashes claim nearly 100 lives,”BBC, September 19, 2022. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62950787(accessed on April 20, 2023).

Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Border Clashes Prove Deadly for Civilians.” Human Rights Watch, September 21, 2022. Available at: https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/09/21/kyrgyzstan-tajikistan-border-clashes-prove-deadly-civilians (accessed November 15, 2022).

Loyn, D. “Central Asia has not been so unstable since the fall of the Soviet Union,” The National. October 17, 2022. Available at: https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comment/2022/10/17/central-asia-has-not-been-so-unstable-since-the-fall-of-the-soviet-union/ (accessed November 15, 2022).

Luong, P.J and Jone, P. Institutional change and political continuity in Post-Soviet Central Asia: power, perceptions, and pacts. Cambridge University Press, 2002.

Meeting with President of the Kyrgyz Republic Sadyr Japarov”, (17th September 2022). Available at: https://mfa.tj/en/london/view/11021/meeting-with-president-of-the-kyrgyz-republic-sadyr-japarov

Nichol, J. "Tajikistan: Recent Developments and US Interests." Washington DC: Library of Congress Congressional Research Service, 2009.

Oxford Analytica. "Kyrgyz-Tajik clashes risk more serious escalation." Emerald Expert Briefings oxan-es, 2021.

Parham, S."The bridge that divides: local perceptions of the connected state in the Kyrgyzstan–Tajikistan–China borderlands." Central Asian Survey 35(3), 2016.

Special Eurasia. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: causes and analysis of an endless border dispute. 2022, Available at: https://www.specialeurasia.com/2022/09/29/kyrgyzstan-tajikistan-borders/(accessed December 20, 2022).

Stryker, C. "Importing Chinese Surveillance Technology: Are Central Asian States on the Path to Digital Authoritarianism?." PhD diss., 2022

Sullivan, C.J. "Battle at the Border: An Analysis of the 2021 Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Conflict." Asian Affairs 52(3),2021

Tajik Election Law Changes Seen Favoring President’s Son”, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty. (February 07, 2018). Available at: https://www.rferl.org/a/tajikistan-election-law-changes-favor-rahmon-son/29025237.html (accessed November 21, 2022).

Tajikistan says Kyrgyzstan hides military hardware close to border, despite ceasefire deal.” Radio Free Europe /Radio Liberty. September 21, 2022. Available at: https://www.rferl.org/a/tajikistan-kyrgyzstan-clashes-border-military-hardware/32044579.html (accessed on April 12, 2023).

Tastekin, F. "Are Turkish drones complicating disputes in Central Asia.” Al-Monitor, September 26, 2022. Available at: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/09/are-turkish-drones-complicating-disputes-central-asia (accessed on April 22, 2023).

Tayfur, N.A. “Kyrgyzstan declares state of emergency in Batken region bordering Tajikistan.” Asia-Pacific, September 17, 2022. Available at: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/kyrgyzstan-declares-state-of-emergency-in-batken-region-bordering-tajikistan/2687523(accessed November 29, 2022).

The SCO Summit in Samarkand” Middle East Institute. November 1, 2022. Available at: https://www.mei.edu/publications/sco-summit-samarkand-reviving-iran-and-uzbekistan-relations-oil-and-transit-axis (accessed on April 10, 2023).

Urciuolo, L. “Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: Causes and Analysis of an endless border dispute.” Special Eurasia, September 29, 2022. Available at: https://www.specialeurasia.com/2022/09/29/kyrgyzstan-tajikistan-borders/ (accessed December 10, 2022).

Why Russia and China aren’t intervening in Central Asia.” Foreign Policy. October 4, 2022). Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/04/tajikistan-kyrgyzstan-russia-china-intervention-central-asia/ (accessed November 20, 2022).

Yasar, S. A. R. I. "Identity-conflict relations: A case-study of the Ferghana valley conflicts," Central Asia and the Caucasus 14(4), 2013.

Zhiltsov, S. "External actors in Central Asia: Multilateral Cooperation Mechanisms," Central Asia & the Caucasus, 22(3), 2021.

Downloads

Published

2024-02-02

How to Cite

Saud, A., & Gul, A. (2024). Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Border Skirmishes (2022) and Waning Russian Influence in Central Asia. Central Asia, 92(Summer), 17–34. https://doi.org/10.54418/ca-92.198